September 6, 2010


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Don't Be Bullish Just Because You're Long

Your holdings must stand on their own merit

Written by Tony Crescenzi , CEO BondTalk.com

Have you ever found yourself rooting for x and y to happen so that your investments might go your way?Does your portfolio rather than your investment criteria sometimes determine your next trade?In other words, do you find yourself bullish because you are long instead of long because you are bullish?

If you answered yes to any of the above questions, you�re not alone.Investors seem to have a knack for letting their portfolios affect their investment decisions and they seem to forget who�s in charge.

Here�s an example (this happened to more than a few investors in 2000): Suppose that you bought stock in a dot-com company at the end of 1999 and the stock surged at the start of 2000.Despite the surge, however, you decide to hold the stock because of its strong performance.You do this even though you have found no new fundamental basis for justifying the company�s high stock price.You are bullish because you are long.

For so many investors in 2000, they had little basis for staying long the dot-com companies they were invested in.They became disillusioned by dot-com mania and turned their backs upon prudent investing.Investors basically could not see past their bullishness.

And when the dot-com bubble burst many of these same investors stared at their portfolios like a dear in headlights.They never did find a reason to stay long but stayed bullish because they were long.A crushing mistake.These investors were rooting for a return of a mania that would never return.

In another example, picture a day trader who takes a long position in Treasury bond futures with the thought that traders in the pit are short the market.The day trader believes that with the market trending downward for weeks, that a rally would squeeze the shorts.But despite the trader�s expectations, the market resumes its downtrend.The day trader still holds out hope, however, that the market will rally and the pit will then feel compelled to cover their short positions.He is bullish because he is long.But the market never recovers and the trader has a losing day.

Of course, being bullish and long can surely go hand-in-hand.After all, you must always have hope that your profits will run or else you will cut them short.But too often investors find themselves held hostage to their own emotions and shunt reason.

You may not always know whether you are in a situation like this but there are a few telltale signs:

1)����� You decide against using stop-losses, you lower an existing stop-loss level, or eliminate an existing stop-loss order completely.

2)����� You decide to forgo a review of a company that you are invested in after they report a change in their outlook.

3)����� When the market is moving against you, you think that every little wiggle back in your direction will spell eventual recovery in your losing trade even though every little wiggle in your favor is followed by two wiggles against you.

4)����� You skip both technical and fundamental evaluations of the companies you invest in simply because you are bullish on the market.

There are plenty of other signs and they are relatively easy to spot.They are usually most apparent when you are finding reasons to stay long even though you are losing money.But as easy as these signs are to spot, you face the more difficult challenge of fighting your own emotions.But don�t fret�even the greatest of traders get caught in the fight against themselves.It�s a battle that never ends.

So next time you find yourself in a losing trade, ask yourself�truly ask yourself why you are long.



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